Modelling norovirus transmission and vaccination
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Published version
Author(s)
Gaythorpe, KAM
Trotter, CL
Conlan, AJK
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Norovirus is thought to be responsible for a fifth of all acute gastroenteritis cases globally each year. The population level transmission dynamics of this very common virus are still poorly understood, in part because illness is under-reported. With vaccines undergoing clinical trials, there is a growing need for appropriate, empirically grounded models, to predict the likely impact of vaccination. METHODS: We developed a dynamic age-specific mathematical model of norovirus transmission and vaccination, informed by available data, particularly age-stratified time series case notification data. We introduce the use of a self-reporting Markov model to account for variation by age and over time in the statutory reporting of norovirus in Germany. We estimated the model using a sequential Monte Carlo particle filter. We then extended and applied our estimated model to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunisation strategies. We performed sensitivity analyses on the mode of vaccine action and other vaccine-related parameters. RESULTS: We find that routine immunisation could reduce the incidence of norovirus by up to 70.5% even when those vaccines do not provide complete protection from disease. Furthermore, we find that the relative efficiency of alternative strategies targeting different age groups are dependant on the outcome we consider and are sensitive to assumptions on the mode of vaccine action. Strategies that target infants and toddler are more efficient in preventing infection but targeting older adults is preferable for preventing severe outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our model provides a robust estimate of a dynamic transmission model for norovirus at the population level. Vaccination may be an effective strategy in preventing disease but further work is required to ascertain norovirus vaccine efficacy, its mode of action and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of immunisation against norovirus.
Date Issued
2018-09-05
Date Acceptance
2018-07-22
Citation
Vaccine, 2018, 36 (37), pp.5565-5571
ISSN
0264-410X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
5565
End Page
5571
Journal / Book Title
Vaccine
Volume
36
Issue
37
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is
an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30076105
PII: S0264-410X(18)31049-1
Subjects
Deterministic
Markov model
Mathematical model
Norovirus
ODEs
Vaccine
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Date Publish Online
2018-07-31