Are new parties shut out of the UK House of Commons?
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Nason, Guy
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In recent years it has been claimed that new political parties are shut out of the UK House of Commons because they are rarely elected. At the same time, general political understanding seems to be that the House of Commons is currently further away from a pure two-party distribution of seats than at any time in the past century, perhaps longer. Although this might seem like a paradox it is possible for both of these things to have credence. We present an analysis that shows that the number of new political parties elected to the House of Commons has been slowly declining over the last century. We illustrate this both by regression and Good-Turing analyses. We also analyse the lifetime and persistence of political parties as well as present metrics that indicate the recent increased political diversity and identify the nadir of diversity in the mid-1960s and early 1970s.
Date Acceptance
2026-10-14
Citation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
ISSN
0964-1998
Publisher
Royal Statistical Society
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
Copyright Statement
Copyright This paper is embargoed until publication. Once published the author’s accepted manuscript will be made available under a CC-BY License in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy).
Identifier
https://profiles.imperial.ac.uk/g.nason
Publication Status
Accepted