Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes
File(s)
Accepted version
Supplementary Information
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.
Date Issued
2021-12-01
Date Acceptance
2021-08-04
Citation
Nature Energy, 2021, 6 (12), pp.1114-1123
ISSN
2058-7546
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1114
End Page
1123
Journal / Book Title
Nature Energy
Volume
6
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000706090500002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
CARBON BUDGET
Energy & Fuels
Materials Science
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
MODEL
PARIS AGREEMENT
Science & Technology
SIDE SOLUTIONS
Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-10-11