Tactical target date funds
File(s)gmz_all.pdf (855.85 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Gomes, Francisco
Michaelides, Alexander
Zhang, Yuxin
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We propose target date funds modified to exploit stock return predictability driven by the variance risk premium. The portfolio rule of these tactical target date funds (TTDFs) is extremely simplified relative to the optimal one, making it easy to implement and to communicate to investors. We show that saving for retirement in TTDFs generates economically large welfare gains, even after we introduce turnover restrictions and transaction costs, and after taking into account parameter uncertainty. This predictability also appears to be uncorrelated with individual household risk, suggesting that households are in a prime position to exploit it.
Date Issued
2022-04-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-05
Citation
Management Science, 2022, 68 (4), pp.2377-3174
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
2377
End Page
3174
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
68
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2021, INFORMS
Subjects
Operations Research
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-05