Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
File(s)26151.full.pdf (1.18 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
Date Issued
2020-09-28
Date Acceptance
2020-09-09
Citation
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, 2020, 117 (42), pp.26151-26157
ISSN
0027-8424
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Start Page
26151
End Page
26157
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
Volume
117
Issue
42
Copyright Statement
© 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed underCreative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/42/26151/tab-article-info
Subjects
climate
disease transmission
hierarchical intervention network
human behavior
international collaboration
Betacoronavirus
Climate
Communicable Disease Control
Communicable Diseases, Emerging
Coronavirus Infections
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Forecasting
Global Health
Humans
International Cooperation
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
Travel
Humans
Communicable Diseases, Emerging
Pneumonia, Viral
Coronavirus Infections
Climate
Communicable Disease Control
Models, Theoretical
Forecasting
International Cooperation
Travel
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Pandemics
Global Health
Betacoronavirus
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-09-28