Implications of future natural gas demand on sugarcane production, land use Change and related emissions in Brazil
File(s)
Published version
Accepted version
Author(s)
Garcia Kerdan, Ivan
Giarola, Sara
Hawkes, Adam
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil’s agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand, however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits.
Date Issued
2020-06-01
Date Acceptance
2019-08-13
Citation
Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2020, 8 (2), pp.304-327
ISSN
1848-9257
Publisher
SDEWES Centre
Start Page
304
End Page
327
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Volume
8
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Owner. This an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0, which permits redistribution and copy for non-commercial use, provided the original article is not altered, and the author(s) and source is credited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/deed.en_US
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000519565900006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
NE/N018656/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Energy system model
Agriculture
Land-use
Projections
Natural gas
Bioenergy
Brazil
CARBON EMISSIONS
ENERGY
FOOD
IMPACT
DEFORESTATION
AGRICULTURE
BIOENERGY
FORECAST
DYNAMICS
BIOFUELS
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2020-01