Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models
File(s)Bellotti_Crook_IJF_2013.pdf (509.88 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Bellotti, T
Crook, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We present discrete time survival models of borrower default for credit cards that include behavioural data about credit card holders and macroeconomic conditions across the credit card lifetime. We find that dynamic models which include these behavioural and macroeconomic variables provide statistically significant improvements in model fit, which translate into better forecasts of default at both account and portfolio levels when applied to an out-of-sample data set. By simulating extreme economic conditions, we show how these models can be used to stress test credit card portfolios.
Date Issued
2013-10-01
Date Acceptance
2013-08-08
Citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29 (4), pp.563-574
ISSN
1872-8200
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
563
End Page
574
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume
29
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2013, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Management
Business & Economics
ECONOMICS
MANAGEMENT
Survival analysis
Stress testing
Credit risk
RISK
Publication Status
Published