Beyond co-integration: new tools for inference on co-movements
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Published version
Author(s)
Abadir, KM
Talmain, G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series were shown empirically to share an unconventional form of cyclical and persistent dynamics, whose functional form was obtained from the solution of general-equilibrium models with heterogeneous firms. The econometric modeling of equations that link such series requires a new methodology, as existing parametric techniques can cause paradoxical regression results and omit predictabilities. We provide a solution to disentangle the genuine relation between variables (the parameters linking them) from the unconventional dynamics that drive them. As an application, we show that GBP-USD forward premia have no predictive power for excess returns over 1976–2015 (thus solving this forward-premium puzzle) once the unconventional dynamics of spot rates are modeled. Taking advantage of these dynamics, we uncover a trading strategy which consistently outperforms existing ones in the out-of-sample period 2015–2021, delivering almost treble their profits and yielding a Sharpe ratio of 85%. Hence, even in this heavily traded market, the efficient market hypothesis has been failing for over 45 years as persistent profit opportunities remained unexploited because of the unconventional dynamics of the spot rate.
Date Issued
2024-09-01
Date Acceptance
2023-03-15
ISSN
1479-8409
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
839
End Page
867
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Econometrics
Volume
22
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/jfec/article/22/4/839/7160347
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-05-11