Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making.
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, we propose a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future. Our framework proposes that policy makers should establish long term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.
Date Issued
2015-11-03
Date Acceptance
2015-10-28
Citation
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2015
ISSN
1878-3511
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
17
End Page
23
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume
42
Copyright Statement
2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/).
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26546234
PII: S1201-9712(15)00258-1
Subjects
models, theoretical
public health practice
tuberculosis
Publication Status
Published