New robust inference for predictive regressions
File(s)PredictiveRevisedPub.pdf (694.03 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Ibragimov, Rustam
Kim, Jihyun
Skrobotov, Anton
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We propose a robust inference method for predictive regression models under heterogeneously persistent volatility as well as endogeneity, persistence, or heavy-tailedness of regressors. This approach relies on two methodologies, nonlinear instrumental variable estimation and volatility correction, which are used to deal with the aforementioned characteristics of regressors and volatility, respectively. Our method is simple to implement and is applicable both in the case of continuous and discrete time models. According to our simulation study, the proposed method performs well compared with widely used alternative inference procedures in terms of its finite sample properties in various dependence and persistence settings observed in real-world financial and economic markets.
Date Issued
2024-12-01
Date Acceptance
2023-03-23
Citation
Econometric Theory, 2024, 40 (6), pp.1364-1390
ISSN
0266-4666
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Start Page
1364
End Page
1390
Journal / Book Title
Econometric Theory
Volume
40
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2023 Cambridge University Press. This article has been accepted for publication in Econometric Theory. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works.
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-05-03