Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media–conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.
Date Issued
2023-06
Date Acceptance
2023-05-05
Citation
Science Advances, 2023, 23 (23), pp.1-10
ISSN
2375-2548
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Start Page
1
End Page
10
Journal / Book Title
Science Advances
Volume
23
Issue
23
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License URL
Identifier
https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adg7676
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
eadg767
Date Publish Online
2023-06-09