The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Barnett-Howell, Zachary
Watson, Oliver John
Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Widespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.
Methods
We use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies.
Results
Social distancing measures that ‘flatten the curve’ of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices.
Conclusions
The epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households’ ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.
Widespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.
Methods
We use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies.
Results
Social distancing measures that ‘flatten the curve’ of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices.
Conclusions
The epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households’ ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.
Date Issued
2021-01-13
Date Acceptance
2020-11-02
Citation
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2021, traa140
ISSN
0035-9203
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Journal / Book Title
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume
traa140
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version: Zachary Barnett-Howell, Oliver John Watson, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries, Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2021;, traa140, is available online: https://doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/traa140
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/trstmh/advance-article/doi/10.1093/trstmh/traa140/6095749
Subjects
Tropical Medicine
0605 Microbiology
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2021-01-13