The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Navigational contrail avoidance presents an opportunity for rapid reduction in aviation-attributable warming. Here, we use the Aviation Climate and Air Quality Impacts model to evaluate the global temperature changes associated with contrail avoidance towards 2050. If no avoidance is adopted, aviation is projected to contribute 0.040 K of CO2 warming and 0.054 K of contrail warming by 2050. The combined warming from aviation CO2 and contrails is 19% of the difference between current temperatures and the +2 °C limit above pre-Industrial levels, i.e. 19% of our remaining temperature budget. An avoidance strategy phased in over 2035-2045 may recover 9% of this budget, but a 10-year delay may reduce this to 2%. The warming due to additional CO2 emitted during avoidance is two orders of magnitude lower than the expected contrail warming reduction. For every year of delay, the world will be on average 0.003 K hotter in 2050. The most significant climate risk associated with contrail avoidance is therefore inaction.
Date Issued
2026-01-28
Date Acceptance
2026-01-16
Citation
Nature Communications, 2026, 17 (1)
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
17
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view acopyofthislicence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41605960
PII: 10.1038/s41467-026-68784-8
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
2092
Date Publish Online
2026-01-28