Rational expectations and the paradox of policy-relevant natural experiments
File(s)JME10 with figures without appendix.pdf (410.67 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Chemla, Gilles
Hennessy, Christopher
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Policy experiments using large microeconomic datasets have recently gained ground in macro- economics. Imposing rational expectations, we examine robustness of evidence derived from ideal natural experiments applied to atomistic agents in dynamic settings. Paradoxically, once experi-mental evidence is viewed as su¢ ciently clean to use, it then becomes contaminated byex post endo- geneity: Measured responses depend upon priors and the objective function into which evidence is fed. Moreover, agentsípolicy beliefs become endogenously correlated with their causal parameters, severely clouding inference, e.g. sign reversals and non-invertibility may obtain. Treatment-control di§erences are contaminated for non-quadratic adjustment costs. Constructively, we illustrate how inference can be corrected accounting for feedback and highlight factors mitigating contamination.
Date Issued
2020-10-01
Date Acceptance
2019-05-08
Citation
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 114, pp.368-381
ISSN
0304-3932
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
368
End Page
381
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Monetary Economics
Volume
114
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Business & Economics
Natural experiments
Rational expectations
Causality
Policy
CASH FLOW
INVESTMENT
ECONOMICS
1401 Economic Theory
1402 Applied Economics
1403 Econometrics
Economics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-05-09