Ebola virus disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review
File(s)Ebola - R1.docx (1.88 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Ebola virus disease poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of Ebola virus disease transmission models and parameters published from database inception to July 7, 2023, from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted with a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable, as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random-effect estimates were 15·4 days (95% CI 13·2–17·5) for the serial interval, 8·5 days (7·7–9·2) for the incubation period, 9·3 days (8·5–10·1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay, and 13·0 days (10·4–15·7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar, albeit with narrower CIs. Case-fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. Although a substantial body of literature exists on Ebola virus disease models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the west African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus, which leaves a key gap in our knowledge regarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.
Date Issued
2024-12-01
Date Acceptance
2024-06-07
Citation
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2024, 24 (12), pp.E762-E773
ISSN
1473-3099
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
E762
End Page
E773
Journal / Book Title
Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume
24
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.
This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(24)00374-8/fulltext
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-08-07