Discovering spatial-temporal patterns via complex networks in investigating COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
File(s)Manuscript (clean version).pdf (5.14 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Pan, Yue
Zhang, Limao
Unwin, Helena
Skibniewskid, Miroslaw J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A novel approach combining time series analysis and complex network theory is proposed to deeply explore characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in some parts of the United States (US). It
merges as a new way to provide a systematic view and complementary information of COVID-19 progression in the US, enabling evidence-based responses towards pandemic intervention and prevention. To begin with, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) varimax is adopted to fuse observed time-series data about the pandemic evolution in each state across the US. Then, relationships between the pandemic progress of two individual states are measured by different synchrony metrics, which can then be mapped into networks under unique topological characteristics. Lastly, the hidden knowledge in the established networks can be revealed from different perspectives by network structure measurement, community detection, and online random forest, which helps to inform data-driven decisions for battling the pandemic. It has been found that states gathered in the same community by diffusion entropy reducer (DER) are
prone to be geographically close and share a similar pattern and tendency of COVID-19 evolution. Social factors regarding the political party, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and population density are possible to be significantly associated with the two detected communities within a constructed network. Moreover, the cluster-specific predictor based on online random forest and sliding window is proven useful in
dynamically capturing and predicting the epidemiological trends for each community, which can reach the highest R square of 0.887.
merges as a new way to provide a systematic view and complementary information of COVID-19 progression in the US, enabling evidence-based responses towards pandemic intervention and prevention. To begin with, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) varimax is adopted to fuse observed time-series data about the pandemic evolution in each state across the US. Then, relationships between the pandemic progress of two individual states are measured by different synchrony metrics, which can then be mapped into networks under unique topological characteristics. Lastly, the hidden knowledge in the established networks can be revealed from different perspectives by network structure measurement, community detection, and online random forest, which helps to inform data-driven decisions for battling the pandemic. It has been found that states gathered in the same community by diffusion entropy reducer (DER) are
prone to be geographically close and share a similar pattern and tendency of COVID-19 evolution. Social factors regarding the political party, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and population density are possible to be significantly associated with the two detected communities within a constructed network. Moreover, the cluster-specific predictor based on online random forest and sliding window is proven useful in
dynamically capturing and predicting the epidemiological trends for each community, which can reach the highest R square of 0.887.
Date Issued
2022-02
Date Acceptance
2021-10-22
Citation
Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 77, pp.1-19
ISSN
2210-6707
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
Sustainable Cities and Society
Volume
77
Copyright Statement
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670721007745
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
0502 Environmental Science and Management
1205 Urban and Regional Planning
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-10