Estimating the effect of social distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States
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Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Olney, Andrew
Smith, Jesse
Sen, Saunak
Thomas, Fridtjof
Unwin, Helena
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. When medical treatments for the virus were still emerging and a vaccine was not yet available, state and local governments sought to limit its spread by enacting various social-distancing interventions, such as school closures and lockdowns; however, the effectiveness of these interventions was unknown. We applied an established, semimechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from Europe to the United States, using case fatalities from February 29, 2020, up to April 25, 2020, when some states began reversing their interventions. We estimated the effects of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction numbers before and after lockdown for each state, and contrasted the predicted number of future fatalities with the actual number of fatalities as a check of the model’s validity. Overall, school closures and lockdowns were the only interventions modeled that had a reliable impact on the time-varying reproduction number, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing that number to below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.
Date Issued
2021-08
Date Acceptance
2020-12-29
Citation
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2021, 190 (8), pp.1504-1509
ISSN
0002-9262
Publisher
Bloomberg School of Public Health
Start Page
1504
End Page
1509
Journal / Book Title
American Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
190
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Epidemiology following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa293/6066665
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/190/8/1504/6066665
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Bayesian hierarchical model
intervention effect size
reproduction number
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
social isolation
01 Mathematical Sciences
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Epidemiology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-01-07