Given the strong presence of natural gas in the European Union (EU) energy mix (25%), this work focuses on natural gas strategic storage reserves as a first non-market based solidarity measure to increase energy security among EU Member States in response to natural gas supply “high-impact, low-probability” events (HILP). It presents a two-stage stochastic LP optimization gas transport model minimizing costs to study the short-term resilience of the network to supply shocks when using strategic storage in a coordinated fashion and including a policy perspective (i.e., EU Regulation 2017/1938) to evaluate the impact of HILP on the level of demand curtailment, survival time, and the natural gas supply mix among MS in the EU.
The model is implemented to analyze three applications related to natural gas storage: (1) assess resilience and security in the EU gas system during a real case of shock in demand during an exceptionally cold weather; (2) test the role of coordination in case of short-term HILP events in the EU natural gas network; and (3) examine solidarity measures, such as strategic storage, among EU Regional Risk Groups during gas system disruptions due to HILP events.
Results highlight the value of gas infrastructure diversification and the role of storage in the gas market and its inherent value in the system. In particular, the cost efficiency found in the coordinated use of strategic storage during a short-term emergency emphasizes the importance of storage-based solidarity in mitigating the effects of HILP supply disruptions and securing resources to the grid. They indicate that geographical proximity alone, without solidarity interventions, is insufficient to provide system resilience and that solidarity interventions enhance survival time for Regional Risk Groups in the EU and reduce liquefied natural gas (LNG) and system costs, offering an additional insight on the interplay between storage and LNG.