Evaluating composite approaches to modelling high-dimensional stochastic variables in power systems
File(s)PSCC 2016 copulas final.pdf (6.22 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Sun, M
Konstantelos, I
Tindemans, S
Strbac, G
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
The large-scale integration of intermittent energy
sources, the introduction of shiftable load elements and the
growing interconnection that characterizes electricity systems
worldwide have led to a significant increase of operational
uncertainty. The construction of suitable statistical models is a
fundamental step towards building Monte Carlo analysis
frameworks to be used for exploring the uncertainty state-space
and supporting real-time decision-making. The main
contribution of the present paper is the development of novel
composite modelling approaches that employ dimensionality
reduction, clustering and parametric modelling techniques with a
particular focus on the use of pair copula construction schemes.
Large power system datasets are modelled using different
combinations of the aforementioned techniques, and detailed
comparisons are drawn on the basis of Kolmogorov-Smirnov
tests, multivariate two-sample energy tests and visual data
comparisons. The proposed methods are shown to be superior to
alternative high-dimensional modelling approaches.
sources, the introduction of shiftable load elements and the
growing interconnection that characterizes electricity systems
worldwide have led to a significant increase of operational
uncertainty. The construction of suitable statistical models is a
fundamental step towards building Monte Carlo analysis
frameworks to be used for exploring the uncertainty state-space
and supporting real-time decision-making. The main
contribution of the present paper is the development of novel
composite modelling approaches that employ dimensionality
reduction, clustering and parametric modelling techniques with a
particular focus on the use of pair copula construction schemes.
Large power system datasets are modelled using different
combinations of the aforementioned techniques, and detailed
comparisons are drawn on the basis of Kolmogorov-Smirnov
tests, multivariate two-sample energy tests and visual data
comparisons. The proposed methods are shown to be superior to
alternative high-dimensional modelling approaches.
Date Issued
2016-06-20
Date Acceptance
2016-02-10
Citation
2016
ISBN
978-88-941051-0-0
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Power Systems Computation Conference
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
283012
Source
19th Power Systems Computation Conference
Publication Status
Accepted
Start Date
2016-06-20
Finish Date
2016-06-24
Coverage Spatial
Genoa, Italy