Argumentative forecasting
File(s)
Author(s)
Irwin, Benjamin
Rago, Antonio
Toni, Francesca
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
We introduce the Forecasting Argumentation Framework (FAF), a
novel argumentation framework for forecasting informed by re-
cent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frame-
works which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over
time with and about probability of scenarios, whilst flagging per-
ceived irrationality in their behaviour with a view to improving
their forecasting accuracy. FAFs include three argument types with
future forecasts and aggregate the strength of these arguments to
inform estimates of the likelihood of scenarios. We describe an
implementation of FAFs for supporting forecasting agents.
novel argumentation framework for forecasting informed by re-
cent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frame-
works which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over
time with and about probability of scenarios, whilst flagging per-
ceived irrationality in their behaviour with a view to improving
their forecasting accuracy. FAFs include three argument types with
future forecasts and aggregate the strength of these arguments to
inform estimates of the likelihood of scenarios. We describe an
implementation of FAFs for supporting forecasting agents.
Date Issued
2022-05-09
Date Acceptance
2021-12-19
Citation
AAMAS '22: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, 2022, pp.1636-1638
ISBN
9781450392136
Publisher
ACM
Start Page
1636
End Page
1638
Journal / Book Title
AAMAS '22: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems
Copyright Statement
© 2022 ACM. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of ACM for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in AAMAS '22: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (Apr 2022) https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3535850.3536060
Source
AAMAS 2022
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2022-05-09
Finish Date
2022-05-13
Coverage Spatial
Virtual
Date Publish Online
2022-05-09