Host behaviour driven by awareness of infection risk amplifies the chance of superspreading events
Author(s)
Parag, Kris V
Thompson, Robin N
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We demonstrate that heterogeneity in the perceived risks associated with infection within host populations amplifies chances of superspreading during the crucial early stages of epidemics. Under this behavioural model, individuals less concerned about dangers from infection are more likely to be infected and attend larger sized (riskier) events, where we assume event sizes remain unchanged. For directly transmitted diseases such as COVID-19, this leads to infections being introduced at rates above the population prevalence to those events most conducive to superspreading. We develop an interpretable, computational framework for evaluating within-event risks and derive a small-scale reproduction number measuring how the infections generated at an event depend on transmission heterogeneities and numbers of introductions. This generalizes previous frameworks and quantifies how event-scale patterns and population-level characteristics relate. As event duration and size grow, our reproduction number converges to the basic reproduction number. We illustrate that even moderate levels of heterogeneity in the perceived risks of infection substantially increase the likelihood of disproportionately large clusters of infections occurring at larger events, despite fixed overall disease prevalence. We show why collecting data linking host behaviour and event attendance is essential for accurately assessing the risks posed by invading pathogens in emerging stages of outbreaks.
Date Issued
2024-07
Date Acceptance
2024-06-18
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2024, 21 (216)
ISSN
1742-5662
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
21
Issue
216
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0325
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
20240325
Date Publish Online
2024-07-24