Randomized assortment optimization
File(s)Randomized_assortment_Optimization__new_template.pdf (771.09 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Wang, Zhengchao
Peura, Heikki
Wiesemann, Wolfram
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
When a firm selects an assortment of products to offer to customers, it uses a choice model to anticipate their probability of purchasing each product. In practice, the estimation of these models is subject to statistical errors, which may lead to significantly suboptimal assortment decisions. Recent work has addressed this issue using robust optimization, where the true parameter values are assumed unknown and the firm chooses an assortment that maximizes its worst-case expected revenues over an uncertainty set of likely parameter values, thus mitigating estimation errors. In this paper, we introduce the concept of randomization into the robust assortment optimization literature. We show that the standard approach of deterministically selecting a single assortment to offer is not always optimal in the robust assortment optimization problem. Instead, the firm can improve its worst-case expected revenues by selecting an assortment randomly according to a prudently designed probability distribution. We demonstrate this potential benefit of randomization both theoretically in an abstract problem formulation as well as empirically across three popular choice models: the multinomial logit model, the Markov chain model, and the preference ranking model. We show how an optimal randomization strategy can be determined exactly and heuristically. Besides the superior in-sample performance of randomized assortments, we demonstrate improved out-of-sample performance in a data-driven setting that combines estimation with optimization. Our results suggest that more general versions of the assortment optimization problem—incorporating business constraints, more flexible choice models and/or more general uncertainty sets—tend to be more receptive to the benefits of randomization.
Date Issued
2024-09-01
Date Acceptance
2024-02-06
Citation
Operations Research, 2024, 72 (5), pp.2042-2060
ISSN
0030-364X
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
2042
End Page
2060
Journal / Book Title
Operations Research
Volume
72
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2024, INFORMS. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/opre.2022.0129
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-03-14