Assessing the feasibility of global long-term mitigation scenarios
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2OC goal is, when compared to the 2.5-4OC goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2OC goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2OC is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
Date Issued
2017-01-13
Date Acceptance
2016-12-16
Citation
Energies, 2017, 10 (1)
ISSN
1996-1073
Publisher
MDPI
Journal / Book Title
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2017 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Sponsor
Met Office
Grant Number
PO14206
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Energy & Fuels
climate change mitigation
low-carbon scenarios
mitigation feasibility
2 DEGREES-C
CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS
CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION
NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES
NEGATIVE EMISSIONS
ENERGY SYSTEM
COSTS
TECHNOLOGIES
TARGETS
POTENTIALS
09 Engineering
02 Physical Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
89