Can groups improve expert economic and financial forecasts?
File(s)Smith et al 2022.pdf (564.96 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Smith, Warwick
Hanea, Anca
Burgman, Mark
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts.
Date Issued
2022-08-02
Date Acceptance
2022-07-25
Citation
Forecasting, 2022, 4 (3), pp.699-716
ISSN
2571-9394
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Start Page
699
End Page
716
Journal / Book Title
Forecasting
Volume
4
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.orglicenses/by/4.0/).
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.orglicenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
economic forecasting
expert opinion
economic survey
macroeconomics
JUDGMENT
Publication Status
Published