Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant
File(s)science.abl9551.pdf (1.35 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.
Date Issued
2021-11-02
Date Acceptance
2021-10-29
Citation
Science, 2021, 374 (6574), pp.1-11
ISSN
0036-8075
Publisher
AAAS
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
374
Issue
6574
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). his work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
UK Research and Innovation
Identifier
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abl9551
Grant Number
RP-2016-07-012
9815274 MC_PC_19025
Subjects
COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-11-02