Radial rainfall pattern changes of intense over‐ocean tropical cyclones under global warming: insights from an MRI HighRes CMIP6 simulation
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center (To), maximum rainfall (Tm), radius of maximum rainfall (Rm), and e‐folding radius (Re). We find Tm strongly correlates (r = 0.8) with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across different
intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
Date Issued
2025-05-16
Date Acceptance
2025-04-24
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52 (9)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
52
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
License URL
Identifier
10.1029/2025GL116146
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2025GL116146
Date Publish Online
2025-05-02