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Seasonality, intensity, and duration of rainfall extremes change in a warmer climate
File(s)
2020EF001824.pdf (2.53 MB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Moustakis, Yiannis
Papalexiou, Simon Michael
Onof, Christian J
Paschalis, Athanasios
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year.
Date Issued
2021-03
Date Acceptance
2021-02-16
Citation
Earth's Future, 2021, 9 (3), pp.1-15
URI
URL
DOI
ISSN
2328-4277
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Start Page
1
End Page
15
Journal / Book Title
Earth's Future
Volume
9
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2021. The Authors.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
License URL
Identifier
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001824
Subjects
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-02-23