Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations
File(s)ms_revised_final.pdf (2.71 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.
Date Issued
2016-12-20
Date Acceptance
2016-10-10
Citation
Astrophysical Journal, 2016, 833 (2)
ISSN
1538-4357
Publisher
American Astronomical Society
Journal / Book Title
Astrophysical Journal
Volume
833
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
606692
Subjects
Astronomy & Astrophysics
0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences
0305 Organic Chemistry
0306 Physical Chemistry (Incl. Structural)
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
255