Unexpected infection spikes in a model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus vaccination
File(s)vaccines-05-00012 (1).pdf (325.3 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Smith, RJ
Hogan, AB
Mercer, GN
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.
Date Issued
2017-05-18
Date Acceptance
2017-05-15
Citation
Vaccines, 2017, 5 (2)
ISSN
2076-393X
Publisher
MDPI
Journal / Book Title
Vaccines
Volume
5
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Subjects
Respiratory Syncytial Virus
impulsive reproduction number
infection spikes
mathematical model
vaccination
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
12