Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the monovalent vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.
Date Issued
2023-07-19
Date Acceptance
2023-06-27
Citation
Nature Communications, 2023, 14, pp.1-10
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Start Page
1
End Page
10
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
14
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2023. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as
long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the
source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if
changes were made. The images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended
use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted
use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright
holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as
long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the
source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if
changes were made. The images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended
use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted
use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright
holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39736-3
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
4325
Date Publish Online
2023-07-19