Predicting fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Greater London area: an ensemble approach using machine learning methods
File(s)remotesensing-12-00914.pdf (3.06 MB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Estimating air pollution exposure has long been a challenge for environmental health researchers. Technological advances and novel machine learning methods have allowed us to increase the geographic range and accuracy of exposure models, making them a valuable tool in conducting health studies and identifying hotspots of pollution. Here, we have created a prediction model for daily PM2.5 levels in the Greater London area from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2013 using an ensemble machine learning approach incorporating satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD), land use, and meteorological data. The predictions were made on a 1 km × 1 km scale over 3960 grid cells. The ensemble included predictions from three different machine learners: a random forest (RF), a gradient boosting machine (GBM), and a k-nearest neighbor (KNN) approach. Our ensemble model performed very well, with a ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.828. Of the three machine learners, the random forest outperformed the GBM and KNN. Our model was particularly adept at predicting day-to-day changes in PM2.5 levels with an out-of-sample temporal R2 of 0.882. However, its ability to predict spatial variability was weaker, with a R2 of 0.396. We believe this to be due to the smaller spatial variation in pollutant levels in this area.
Date Issued
2020-03-12
Date Acceptance
2020-03-10
Citation
Remote Sensing, 2020, 12 (6), pp.1-18
ISSN
2072-4292
Publisher
MDPI AG
Start Page
1
End Page
18
Journal / Book Title
Remote Sensing
Volume
12
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/6/914
Grant Number
MR/S003983/1
Subjects
0203 Classical Physics
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0909 Geomatic Engineering
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2020-03-12