Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models
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Supporting information
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60047:grl60047-math-0001 doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60047:grl60047-math-0002 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.
Date Issued
2020-01-16
Date Acceptance
2019-12-20
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (1)
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
47
Issue
1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
LOW-CLOUD COVER
OPTICAL DEPTH FEEDBACK
COUPLED MODEL
PHASE
SPREAD
CONSTRAINTS
MECHANISMS
DEPENDENCE
SURFACE
MIDDLE
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e2019GL085782
Date Publish Online
2020-01-03