A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Tracking pathogen transmissibility during infectious disease outbreaks is essential for assessing the effectiveness of public health measures and planning future control strategies. A key measure of transmissibility is the time-dependent reproduction number, which has been estimated in real-time during outbreaks of a range of pathogens from disease incidence time series data. While commonly used approaches for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number can be reliable when disease incidence is recorded frequently, such incidence data are often aggregated temporally (for example, numbers of cases may be reported weekly rather than daily). As we show, commonly used methods for estimating transmissibility can be unreliable when the timescale of transmission is shorter than the timescale of data recording. To address this, here we develop a simulation-based approach involving Approximate Bayesian Computation for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data. We first use a simulated dataset representative of a situation in which daily disease incidence data are unavailable and only weekly summary values are reported, demonstrating that our method provides accurate estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number under such circumstances. We then apply our method to two outbreak datasets consisting of weekly influenza case numbers in 2019–20 and 2022–23 in Wales (in the United Kingdom). Our simple-to-use approach will allow accurate estimates of time-dependent reproduction numbers to be obtained from temporally aggregated data during future infectious disease outbreaks.
Date Issued
2024-06-01
Date Acceptance
2024-05-13
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2024, 47
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
47
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Subjects
Approximate Bayesian Computation
Disease incidence
EpiEstim
Infectious disease epidemiology
Infectious Diseases
Influenza
INFLUENZA-A H1N1
INTERVAL
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical modelling
Parameter inference
Reproduction number
Science & Technology
Serial interval
TRANSMISSION
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 100773
Date Publish Online
2024-05-14