Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
Date Issued
2020-09-04
Date Acceptance
2020-07-16
Citation
Science, 2020, 369 (6508), pp.1255-1260
ISSN
0036-8075
Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
Start Page
1255
End Page
1260
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
369
Issue
6508
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Wellcome Trust
Medical Research Council-São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000567525400055&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
204311/Z/16/Z
MR/S0195/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
CORONAVIRUS
ACCURATE
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-09-04