The global distribution and burden of dengue.
File(s)The global distribution and burden of dengue.pdf (544.75 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.
Date Issued
2013-04-07
Date Acceptance
2013-03-07
Citation
Nature, 2013, 496 (7446), pp.504-507
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Start Page
504
End Page
507
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
496
Issue
7446
Copyright Statement
© 2013 Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
Identifier
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23563266
PII: nature12060
Subjects
Cohort Studies
Databases, Factual
Dengue
Dengue Virus
Global Health
Humans
Incidence
Public Health
Quality Control
Rain
Risk Factors
Temperature
Tropical Climate
Urbanization
World Health Organization
World Health
General Science & Technology
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England