Self-organized criticality in atmospheric rivers
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential components of the global hydrological cycle, with profound
implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Yet, the statistical
organization and underlying physical mechanisms of AR intensity and evolution remain poorly understood.
Here we apply methods from statistical physics to analyze the full life cycle of ARs and identify universal
signatures of self-organized criticality. We demonstrate that AR morphology exhibits nontrivial fractal
geometry, while AR event sizes—quantified via integrated water vapor transport—follow robust power-law
distributions, displaying finite-size scaling. To interpret these emergent behaviors, we develop a moisture
avalanche model that reproduces the observed scaling laws and links them to threshold-driven moisture
transport and precipitation dissipation. These scaling properties persist under warming scenarios, suggesting
that ARs operate near a critical state as emergent, self-regulating systems. Concurrently, we observe a
systematic poleward migration and intensification of ARs, driven by thermodynamic amplification and
dynamical reorganization. Our findings establish a statistical physics framework for ARs, connecting critical
phenomena to the spatio temporal structure of extreme events in a warming climate.
implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and climate dynamics. Yet, the statistical
organization and underlying physical mechanisms of AR intensity and evolution remain poorly understood.
Here we apply methods from statistical physics to analyze the full life cycle of ARs and identify universal
signatures of self-organized criticality. We demonstrate that AR morphology exhibits nontrivial fractal
geometry, while AR event sizes—quantified via integrated water vapor transport—follow robust power-law
distributions, displaying finite-size scaling. To interpret these emergent behaviors, we develop a moisture
avalanche model that reproduces the observed scaling laws and links them to threshold-driven moisture
transport and precipitation dissipation. These scaling properties persist under warming scenarios, suggesting
that ARs operate near a critical state as emergent, self-regulating systems. Concurrently, we observe a
systematic poleward migration and intensification of ARs, driven by thermodynamic amplification and
dynamical reorganization. Our findings establish a statistical physics framework for ARs, connecting critical
phenomena to the spatio temporal structure of extreme events in a warming climate.
Date Issued
2026-03-06
Date Acceptance
2026-02-02
Citation
Physical Review Letters, 2026, 136 (9)
ISSN
0031-9007
Publisher
American Physical Society (APS)
Journal / Book Title
Physical Review Letters
Volume
136
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2026 American Physical Society. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41861341
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
094201
Date Publish Online
2026-03-02