Introducing doubt in Bayesian model comparison
File(s)0811.2415v1.pdf (288.38 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Starkman, GD
Trotta, R
Vaudrevange, PM
Type
Working Paper
Abstract
There are things we know, things we know we don't know, and then there are things we don't know we don't know. In this paper we address the latter two issues in a Bayesian framework, introducing the notion of doubt to quantify the degree of (dis)belief in a model given observational data in the absence of explicit alternative models. We demonstrate how a properly calibrated doubt can lead to model discovery when the true model is unknown.
Date Issued
2008-11-14
Citation
2008
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2008
Identifier
http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.2415v1
Subjects
physics.data-an
astro-ph
Notes
10 pages, 5 figures
Publication Status
Published