Reflections on modern methods: statistics education beyond “significance”: novel plain English interpretations to deepen understanding of statistics and to steer away from misinterpretations
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Watt, Hilary
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Concerns have been expressed over standards of statistical interpretation. Results with p<0.05 are often referred to as “significant” which, in plain English, implies important. This leads some people directly into the misconception that this provides proof that associations are clinically relevant. There are calls for statistics educators to respond to these concerns. This article provides novel plain English interpretations that are designed to deepen understanding. Experience teaching post-graduates at Imperial College is discussed.
A key issue with focusing on “significance”, is the common inappropriate practice of implying no association exists, simply because p>0.05. Referring to strengths of association in “study participants” gives them gravitas, which may help to avoid this. This contrasts with the common practice of focusing on imprecision, by referring to the “sample” and to “point estimates”.
Unlike formal statistical definitions, interpretations developed and presented here are rooted in the application of Statistics. They are based on one set of study participants (not many random samples). Precision of strengths of association are based on using strengths in study participants to estimate strengths of association in the population (from which participants were selected by probability random sampling). Reference to “compatibility with study data, dependent on statistical modelling assumptions”, reminds us of the importance of data quality and modelling assumptions.
A straight-forward graph shows the relationship between p-values and test statistics. This figure and associated interpretations were developed to illuminate the continuous nature of p-values. This is designed to discourage focus on whether p<0.05, and encourage interpretation of exact p-values.
A key issue with focusing on “significance”, is the common inappropriate practice of implying no association exists, simply because p>0.05. Referring to strengths of association in “study participants” gives them gravitas, which may help to avoid this. This contrasts with the common practice of focusing on imprecision, by referring to the “sample” and to “point estimates”.
Unlike formal statistical definitions, interpretations developed and presented here are rooted in the application of Statistics. They are based on one set of study participants (not many random samples). Precision of strengths of association are based on using strengths in study participants to estimate strengths of association in the population (from which participants were selected by probability random sampling). Reference to “compatibility with study data, dependent on statistical modelling assumptions”, reminds us of the importance of data quality and modelling assumptions.
A straight-forward graph shows the relationship between p-values and test statistics. This figure and associated interpretations were developed to illuminate the continuous nature of p-values. This is designed to discourage focus on whether p<0.05, and encourage interpretation of exact p-values.
Date Issued
2020-12-01
Date Acceptance
2020-07-01
Citation
International Journal of Epidemiology, 2020, 49 (6), pp.2083-2088
ISSN
0300-5771
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
2083
End Page
2088
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Epidemiology
Volume
49
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Journal of Epidemiology following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/49/6/2083/5876177
Subjects
p-value
statistics education
confidence intervals
standard error
hypothesis test
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-07-25