Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the ‘shielders’. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes.
Date Issued
2021-07-19
Date Acceptance
2021-04-11
Citation
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2021, 376 (1829)
ISSN
0962-8436
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume
376
Issue
1829
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000658592500013&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Biology
COVID-19
exit strategy
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
mathematical model
SARS-CoV-2
Science & Technology
segmenting and shielding
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
20200275
Date Publish Online
2021-05-31