What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
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Author(s)
Alif, Ž
Dunning, J
Chik, HYJ
Burke, T
Schroeder, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual's reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual's reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the first year of life were the best proxies of long-term fitness in short-lived birds, we encourage their future use.
Date Issued
2022-04-22
Online Publication Date
2022-05-10T14:23:53Z
Date Acceptance
2022-03-30
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS One
Volume
17
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2022 Alif et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URI
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35452482
PONE-D-21-36302
Subjects
Animals
Animals, Wild
Biological Evolution
Humans
Infant
Pedigree
Reproduction
Animals
Animals, Wild
Humans
Pedigree
Reproduction
Infant
Biological Evolution
Animals
Animals, Wild
Biological Evolution
Humans
Infant
Pedigree
Reproduction
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Country
United States
Article Number
ARTN e0260905