Parameter flexible wildfire prediction using machine learning techniques: forward and inverse modelling
File(s)RS_cheng2022 (4).pdf (2.15 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Parameter identification for wildfire forecasting models often relies on case-by-case tuning or posterior diagnosis/analysis, which can be computationally expensive due to the complexity of the forward prediction model. In this paper, we introduce an efficient parameter flexible fire prediction algorithm based on machine learning and reduced order modelling techniques. Using a training dataset generated by physics-based fire simulations, the method forecasts burned area at different time steps with a low computational cost. We then address the bottleneck of efficient parameter estimation by developing a novel inverse approach relying on data assimilation techniques (latent assimilation) in the reduced order space. The forward and the inverse modellings are tested on two recent large wildfire events in California. Satellite observations are used to validate the forward prediction approach and identify the model parameters. By combining these forward and inverse approaches, the system manages to integrate real-time observations for parameter adjustment, leading to more accurate future predictions.
Date Acceptance
2022-06-29
Citation
Remote Sensing, 14 (13)
ISSN
2072-4292
Publisher
MDPI AG
Journal / Book Title
Remote Sensing
Volume
14
Issue
13
Copyright Statement
© 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
Leverhulme Trust
The Leverhulme Trust
Identifier
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/13/3228
Grant Number
RC-2018-023
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Technology
Environmental Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Remote Sensing
Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Geology
wildfire prediction
machine learning
reduced-order modelling
convolutional autoencoder
data assimilation
latent assimilation
parameter identification
UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION
CELLULAR-AUTOMATA
FIRE PROPAGATION
NEURAL-NETWORKS
SPREAD
ALGORITHM
0203 Classical Physics
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0909 Geomatic Engineering
Publication Status
Published