Modelling the viral dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in different cell types.
File(s)rsif.2023.0187.pdf (1.39 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We use viral kinetic models fitted to viral load data from in vitro studies to explain why the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant replicates faster than the Delta variant in nasal cells, but slower than Delta in lung cells, which could explain Omicron's higher transmission potential and lower severity. We find that in both nasal and lung cells, viral infectivity is higher for Omicron but the virus production rate is higher for Delta, with an estimated approximately 200-fold increase in infectivity and 100-fold decrease in virus production when comparing Omicron with Delta in nasal cells. However, the differences are unequal between cell types, and ultimately lead to the basic reproduction number and growth rate being higher for Omicron in nasal cells, and higher for Delta in lung cells. In nasal cells, Omicron alone can enter via a TMPRSS2-independent pathway, but it is primarily increased efficiency of TMPRSS2-dependent entry which accounts for Omicron's increased activity. This work paves the way for using within-host mathematical models to understand the transmission potential and severity of future variants.
Date Issued
2023-08
Date Acceptance
2023-07-18
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2023, 20 (205), pp.1-12
ISSN
1742-5662
Publisher
The Royal Society
Start Page
1
End Page
12
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
20
Issue
205
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Authors.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37553993
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
213494/Z/18/Z
Subjects
Delta
Omicron
SARS-CoV-2
viral dynamics
viral kinetics model
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2023-08-09