Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan
File(s)
OA Location
Author(s)
Chatzilena, Anastasia
van Leeuwen, Edwin
Ratmann, Oliver
Baguelin, Marc
Demiris, Nikolaos
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and variational inference as implemented in the freely available Stan software. We apply the two methods to real data from outbreaks as well as routinely collected observations. Our results suggest that both inference methods are computationally feasible in this context, and show a trade-off between statistical efficiency versus computational speed. The latter appears particularly relevant for real-time applications.
Date Issued
2019-12
Date Acceptance
2019-08-30
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2019, 29
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
29
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/)
Sponsor
National Institutes of Health
National Institutes of Health
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31591003
PII: S1755-4365(19)30032-5
Grant Number
R01AI127232
BPO 20129 (UWSC 9563)
1705CR001/LD1
Subjects
Automatic differentiation variational inference
Epidemic models
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
No-U-turn sampler
Stan
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Article Number
100367
Date Publish Online
2019-10-05