Human Social Behavior and Demography Drive Patterns of Fine-Scale Dengue Transmission in Endemic Areas of Colombia
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Dengue is known to transmit between humans and A. aegypti mosquitoes living in neighboring houses. Although transmission is thought to be highly heterogeneous in both space and time, little is known about the patterns and drivers of transmission in groups of houses in endemic settings. We carried out surveys of PCR positivity in children residing in 2-block patches of highly endemic cities of Colombia. We found high levels of heterogeneity in PCR positivity, varying from less than 30% in 8 of the 10 patches to 56 and 96%, with the latter patch containing 22 children simultaneously PCR positive (PCR22) for DEN2. We then used an agent-based model to assess the likely eco-epidemiological context of this observation. Our model, simulating daily dengue dynamics over a 20 year period in a single two block patch, suggests that the observed heterogeneity most likely derived from variation in the density of susceptible people. Two aspects of human adaptive behavior were critical to determining this density: external social relationships favoring viral introduction (by susceptible residents or infectious visitors) and immigration of households from non-endemic areas. External social relationships generating frequent viral introduction constituted a particularly strong constraint on susceptible densities, thereby limiting the potential for explosive outbreaks and dampening the impact of heightened vectorial capacity. Dengue transmission can be highly explosive locally, even in neighborhoods with significant immunity in the human population. Variation among neighborhoods in the density of local social networks and rural-to-urban migration is likely to produce significant fine-scale heterogeneity in dengue dynamics, constraining or amplifying the impacts of changes in mosquito populations and cross immunity between serotypes.
Date Issued
2015-12-14
Online Publication Date
2015-12-14
2016-09-26T12:28:37Z
Date Acceptance
2015-11-18
ISSN
1932-6203
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Journal / Book Title
PLOS One
Volume
10
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© 2015 Padmanabha et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
Source Database
web-of-science
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
RIO-DE-JANEIRO
AEDES-AEGYPTI
HUMAN MOVEMENT
VIRUS TRANSMISSION
POPULATIONS
VILLAGES
HETEROGENEITY
NICARAGUA
DISPERSAL
CULICIDAE
Aedes
Animals
Child
Colombia
Dengue
Dengue Virus
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Insect Vectors
Polymerase Chain Reaction
Population Density
Population Dynamics
RNA, Viral
Residence Characteristics
Social Behavior
General Science & Technology
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e0144451