Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m−3 contribution to PM2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.
This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
Date Issued
2026-06-01
Date Acceptance
2026-02-09
Citation
Energy Policy, 2026, 213
ISSN
0301-4215
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Journal / Book Title
Energy Policy
Volume
213
Copyright Statement
© 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
115179
Date Publish Online
2026-02-20