Deep learning predicts real-world electric vehicle direct current charging profiles and durations
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Li, Siyi
Zhang, Mingrui
Doel, Robert
Ross, Benjamin
Piggott, Matthew D
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Accurate prediction of electric vehicle charging profiles and durations is critical for adoption and optimising infrastructure. Direct current fast charging presents complex behaviours shaped by many factors. This work introduces a deep learning framework trained on 909,135 real-world sessions, capable of predicting charging profiles and durations from minimal input with uncertainty estimates. The model initiates predictions from a single point on the power and state-of-charge profile and incrementally refines them as new observations arrive, enabling real-time updates. The model generalises across vehicle types and charging scenarios. It achieves 90% accuracy in predicting charging duration from a single point, and 95% accuracy with an absolute error under one minute using six points within five minutes. This work shows that using readily available input data at charge time enables accurate prediction of charging behaviour and offers a practical, scalable solution for deployment, energy planning, and infrastructure reliability.
Date Issued
2025-12-05
Date Acceptance
2025-10-24
Citation
Nature Communications, 2025, 16
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
16
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
10921
Date Publish Online
2025-12-05