An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The feasibility of large-scale biological CO2 removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear. Direct Air Carbon
Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first
inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2°C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions.
Deploying DACCS significantly reduces mitigation costs, and it complements rather than substitutes other NETs. The key factor
limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5
GtCO2/yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100. The risk of assuming
that DACCS can be deployed at scale, and finding it to be subsequently unavailable, leads to a global temperature overshoot of
up to 0.8°C. DACCS should therefore be developed and deployed alongside, rather than instead of, other mitigation options.
Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first
inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2°C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions.
Deploying DACCS significantly reduces mitigation costs, and it complements rather than substitutes other NETs. The key factor
limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5
GtCO2/yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100. The risk of assuming
that DACCS can be deployed at scale, and finding it to be subsequently unavailable, leads to a global temperature overshoot of
up to 0.8°C. DACCS should therefore be developed and deployed alongside, rather than instead of, other mitigation options.
Date Issued
2019-07-22
Date Acceptance
2019-06-04
Citation
Nature Communications, 2019, 10 (1)
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/.
Sponsor
Shell Global Solutions International BV
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5
Grant Number
PO 4550182471
NE/N018656/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
CARBON-DIOXIDE CAPTURE
CO2 CAPTURE
ETSAP-TIAM
DIFFUSION
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
3277
Date Publish Online
2019-07-22