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  4. Modelling the impact of co-circulating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses on epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry
 
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Modelling the impact of co-circulating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses on epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry
File(s)
Nickbakhsh2016.pdf (1.66 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Nickbakhsh, S
Hall, MD
Dorigatti, I
Lycett, SJ
Mulatti, P
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
It is well known that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses emerge through mutation of precursor low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in domestic poultry populations. The potential for immunological cross-protection between these pathogenic variants is recognised but the epidemiological impact during co-circulation is not well understood. Here we use mathematical models to investigate whether altered flock infection parameters consequent to primary LPAI infections can impact on the spread of HPAI at the population level. First we used mechanistic models reflecting the co-circulatory dynamics of LPAI and HPAI within a single commercial poultry flock. We found that primary infections with LPAI led to HPAI prevalence being maximised under a scenario of high but partial cross-protection. We then tested the population impact in spatially-explicit simulations motivated by a major avian influenza A(H7N1) epidemic that afflicted the Italian poultry industry in 1999-2001. We found that partial cross-protection can lead to a prolongation of HPAI epidemic duration. Our findings have implications for the control of HPAI in poultry particularly for settings in which LPAI and HPAI frequently co-circulate.
Date Issued
2016-10-19
Date Acceptance
2016-10-17
Citation
Epidemics, 2016, 17, pp.27-34
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/42403
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.10.005
ISSN
1878-0067
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
27
End Page
34
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics
Volume
17
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Cross-protection
Epidemiology
Interference
Mathematical models
Poultry
Publication Status
Published
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