Trends in temperature-associated mortality in Sao Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an example of disparities in adaptation to cold and heat
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Exposure to non-optimal temperatures remains the single most deathful direct climate change impact to health. The risk varies based on the adaptation capacity of the exposed population which can be driven by climatic and/or non-climatic factors subject to fluctuations over time. We investigated temporal changes in the exposure–response relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality by cause of death, sex, age, and ethnicity in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2018). We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression model with time-varying distributed-lag non-linear model (tv-DLNM) to obtain annual estimates. We used two indicators of adaptation: trends in the annual minimum mortality temperature (MMT), i.e., temperature at which the mortality rate is the lowest, and in the cumulative relative risk (cRR) associated with extreme cold and heat. Finally, we evaluated their association with annual mean temperature and annual extreme cold and heat, respectively to assess the role of climatic and non-climatic drivers. In total, we investigated 4,471,000 deaths from non-external causes. We found significant temporal trends for both the MMT and cRR indicators. The former was decoupled from changes in AMT, whereas the latter showed some degree of alignment with extreme heat and cold, suggesting the role of both climatic and non-climatic adaptation drivers. Finally, changes in MMT and cRR varied substantially by sex, age, and ethnicity, exposing disparities in the adaptation capacity of these population groups. Our findings support the need for group-specific interventions and regular monitoring of the health risk to non-optimal temperatures to inform urban public health policies.
Date Issued
2022-11-10
Date Acceptance
2022-10-19
Citation
Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 2022, 99, pp.1012-1026
ISSN
1099-3460
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
1012
End Page
1026
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine
Volume
99
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000881646300001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
Urban health
Health inequalities
Climate change
Temperature
Mortality
CITY
SUSCEPTIBILITY
VULNERABILITY
IMPACT
Publication Status
Published