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  5. Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model: a mechanistic and deep learning study
 
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Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model: a mechanistic and deep learning study
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Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model A mechanistic and deep lear.pdf (2.6 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Tang, Biao
Ma, Kexin
Liu, Yan
Wang, Xia
Tang, Sanyi
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Accurate prediction of epidemics is pivotal for making well-informed decisions for the control of infectious diseases, but addressing heterogeneity in the system poses a challenge. In this study, we propose a novel modelling framework integrating the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptible individuals into homogeneous models, by introducing a continuous recruitment process for the susceptibles. A neural network approximates the recruitment rate to develop a Universal Differential Equations (UDE) model. Simultaneously, we pre-set a specific form for the recruitment rate and develop a mechanistic model. Data from a COVID Omicron variant outbreak in Shanghai are used to train the UDE model using deep learning methods and to calibrate the mechanistic model using MCMC methods. Subsequently, we project the attack rate and peak of new infections for the first Omicron wave in China after the adjustment of the dynamic zero-COVID policy. Our projections indicate an attack rate and a peak of new infections of 80.06% and 3.17% of the population, respectively, compared with the homogeneous model’s projections of 99.97% and 32.78%, thus providing an 18.6% improvement in the prediction accuracy based on the actual data. Our simulations demonstrate that heterogeneity in the susceptibles decreases herd immunity for ~37.36% of the population and prolongs the outbreak period from ~30 days to ~70 days, also aligning with the real case. We consider that this study lays the groundwork for the development of a new class of models and new insights for modelling heterogeneity.
Editor(s)
Pepin, Kimberly M
Date Issued
2024-09-01
Date Acceptance
2024-09-17
Citation
PLoS Computational Biology, 2024, 20 (9)
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/120203
URL
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012497
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012497
ISSN
1553-734X
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Computational Biology
Volume
20
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2024 Tang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39348420
PII: PCOMPBIOL-D-24-00630
Subjects
Biochemical Research Methods
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
COVID-19
EPIDEMIC
INFECTION
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical & Computational Biology
MATHEMATICAL-THEORY
NUMBERS
RISK
Science & Technology
TRANSMISSION
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
e1012497
Date Publish Online
2024-09-30
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